Monte Carlo Simulation: Elegant, powerful, and usually dangerously misleading.
Category: Risk Assessment
Value From… Where?
Financial engineering does not transform a dubious project into a winner. When the spreadsheets describe a boost in value, check for new risks hiding below the surface.
In Praise of Doubt
We want to see confidence … but we first need candor.
Weighing Resilience
Value, Risk… and Flexibility. In turbulent times, decision makers need flexibility when selecting the best solution.
Two Moves Ahead
Anticipating our competitors' response is our all too common blind spot.
What Happens In Vegas…
Just how reliable are our business case risk assessments?
Of Checklists And Templates
Checklists and templates can create an unhealthy, unhelpful plug & play mindset.
IT = R + D
It’s time to approach information technology decisions for what they are… research & development.
Bet The Barn – Not The Farm
Fostering more big risks at the local level for bigger wins.
Strategic Bets 